BC Commercial Leading Indicator Edges Lower

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BC Commercial Leading Indicator Edges Lower

Vancouver, BC – August 30, 2011. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) edged down 0.4 points to 108.1 in the second quarter of 2011. After posting a strong performance in 2010, the index has trended lower since the beginning of the year.

The CLI peaked at a level of 115.5 in the second quarter of 2007 before the onset of the financial crisis pushed it to a low of 97.7 in the first half of 2009.

The downward pressure in the CLI over the past two quarters is mostly a product of weak growth in both retail sales and employment. In addition, provincial manufacturing sales have deteriorated alongside the global economy.

“Tepid job creation and deteriorating global economic growth represent significant headwinds for the BC economy and could lead to softer commercial activity in coming quarters,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist. “However, an almost unprecedented decline in long-term interest rates may help to stimulate investment activity and soften the impact of slower economic growth.”